The 2025 General Election, which will shape the nation’s future for the next five years, is now just days away. But what factors will drive voter behaviour across the country, even in traditional party strongholds?
To explore this question, St. Lucia Times spoke with political observers. Political analyst Rhyesa Joseph noted that several indicators are likely to influence how citizens cast their ballots.
“Constituency level politics vary throughout the island, and there are different kinds of voters.
Some of the considerations include national leadership and governance, parliamentary representation, quality of the opposition candidate and trust and confidence in political affiliation,” Joseph said.
With these factors in mind, here are some key points to consider in the following constituencies:
Gros Islet
The contest to represent this tourism hotspot will be between incumbent Kenson Casimir, Minister for Youth Development and Sports in the Pierre administration, and entrepreneur Marcella Johnson. Rhodes Scholar and St. Lucia Times contributor Rahym Augustin-Joseph believes that Gros Islet’s history of interchange between the two political parties could give an indication of the national temperature and provide insight into the national swing.
“I think history has told us that a seat which we have to watch to determine how the election will go on the night is Gros Islet, such that there is a view that a government must win Gros Islet if they want to win the elections, and vice versa with the Opposition as well,” he said. “Over time, the increase in population size in Gros Islet can be consequential for national results, if there is any type of flip or if they remain the same.”
Micoud North
A constituency which traditionally bled yellow for decades, Micoud North turned Labour red for former police officer Jeremiah Norbert in 2021, when he unseated Gale Rigobert. The area was the home constituency of Sir John Compton and had served as a United Workers Party (UWP) stronghold even after his death. Now, the UWP is confident that it can regain this seat through former teacher Elisha Norbert. The two will lock horns in a contest that the nation will closely follow.
Ajani Lebourne, a development professional and a native of Micoud North, believes that the election result will largely hinge on whether the incumbent has truly turned the hearts and minds of his constituents in his favour.
“The Labour party and the incumbent will know that there’s always a strong probability the seat returns to the UWP and that’s just a trend that has to be respected,” Melbourne said. “You look at any other constituency, at Micoud South, for example, when it was lost to the Labour Party, it returned to the UWP and it’s been there since.”
Lebourne said that the election contest in Micoud North would be about comparing the track record of project delivery. He explained that it would involve assessing the extent to which a candidate had been able to maintain programmes and projects while keeping people fully engaged.
Lebourne noted that the constituency’s main industries were fishing and farming, though he added that there were also others in the service sector, with some residents travelling outside of the community for work.
“To what extent has the candidate been able to make things easier for fishermen, make things easier for farmers by improving access roads, supporting farmers in accessing markets? To what extent has the incumbent won over significant UWP support?”
Dennery North
Shawn Edward has been MP for northern Dennery for three consecutive terms. Edward, the Minister for Education, Sustainable Development, Innovation, Science, Technology, and Vocational Training, will be up against well-known community leader Bradley Marcelle Fulgence. Whether it will be a case of “Shawn Again” or whether the voters resonate with Fulgence’s appeal to “Bring Mabouya Further” will be decided by voters on election day.
For this constituency, Lebourne thinks that this race will be closely contested, noting: “You see two candidates of similar profile and stature and when you look at the voting chances in that constituency, notwithstanding Shaun going into his fourth term, I don’t think he’s ever won a seat by more than 500 votes…”
Lebourne remarked that Micoud North was a seat to watch, given the voting trends in the constituency. He questioned whether Bradley’s presence on the ground over the past few months would prove significant, noting that the candidate appeared to have an appeal among young people. Lebourne added that the Saint Lucia Labour Party (SLP) had invested heavily in the creative industries, pointing to the influence of the Dennery segment, and wondered aloud how that had worked so far and whether it would help mobilise votes for the party.
“I think in terms of education policy, it has provided access to a number of opportunities for scholarships for youth in Dennery North. Then factoring in agriculture, that’s another one of the seats where the Labour Party’s agriculture policy, depending on how effective it is, will determine whether they can get the support of the farming community there.”
Vieux Fort North and Laborie
Vieux Fort and Laborie have remained Labour Party strongholds across multiple election cycles. Once a joint constituency, the area has consistently forced the UWP to fight hard for victories. Laborie is regarded as a “red wall” seat for the SLP, while Vieux Fort North, after periods of flirtation with the UWP, has in recent years settled into a loyalty pattern resembling that of Laborie.
Moses Musa Jn Baptiste has been MP for Vieux Fort North since 2006. The Minister of Health in the 2021–2025 cabinet will face a new test in the person of police officer and entertainer Callix Kakal Xavier.
In Laborie, the SLP candidate, Alva Baptiste, is also a 19-year parliamentary veteran. Baptiste, the External Affairs Minister, will face entrepreneur Laura Jn Pierre-Noel.
“In relation to Vieux Fort North and Laborie, obviously these have been Labour Party strongholds for a very long time,” Augustin-Joseph noted. “What people will be looking at is the extent to which these constituencies continue to remain a Labour Party stronghold, or whether there is some major political upset that happens in much the same way as Micoud North did the last time, and flipped to the SLP.”
“But I only see that happening in a circumstance where there is a national swing towards the UWP, and therefore they’re able to finally gallop Vieux Fort North and Laborie. But for all intents and purposes, these constituencies are important ones just like all the others to watch because they will continue to give you a sense of the Labour Party stronghold or lack thereof within the country.”
