CADRES responds to SLP on poll

CADRES responds to SLP on poll

CADRES notes the SLP’s response to its most recent poll of political opinion in St Lucia and feels compelled to correct several inaccuracies conveyed in this statement that appears more propagandistic than scientific.

Ironically the SLP statement begins by indicating that it takes election polls seriously and thereafter proceeds to contradict such seriousness by suggesting that the poll confirms “the lead of the Saint Lucia Labour Party over the United Workers Party” which was NOT suggested in the poll at any point.

The CADRES poll stated clearly that as of last weekend there was a statistical dead-heat between the two parties.

This means that the SLP interpretation is flawed.

We would therefore also disagree with the assessment of their anonymous pollsters who are reported to have said “the SLP is firmly in sight of an election victory”.

Instead, we are persuaded that based on a comparison of this May 2016 poll and the one we conducted in October of 2015, the UWP currently has momentum, while the SLP’s support level has remained static since last year.

The convoluted question pressed in the SLP response confuses voter turnout with promised support and our associated prediction.

The SLP attempts to imply a methodological flaw on the part of CADRES.

CADRES has NEVER represented that it was the intention of this poll to predict voter turnout.

This would require an entirely different methodology. We did, however, intend to predict the likely electoral swing using a method which is consistent with that which correctly predicted a number of elections in the Commonwealth Caribbean; namely 2.6% in favour of the St. Lucia Labour Party in 2011; 1% in favour of the Unity Labour Party in 2015; 12% in favour of the People’s National Movement in 2015 and 9% in favour of the Antigua Labour Party in 2014.

We are therefore equally confident that our prediction of 1.7% in favour of the UWP will hold.

This means that the UWP has sufficient momentum to achieve the minimum 2% swing necessary to win the June 6th election.

The disaggregation of what CADRES refers to as the “Uncertain Voter” (and is more commonly known as the uncommitted voter) informed the assessment of the likely outcome of the four most recent elections in the Caribbean where the CADRES prediction was vindicated.

This adequately discharges any SLP suggestion that the CADRES analysis is flawed.

Regarding the identification of preferred leaders, the SLP here also makes obvious and deliberate errors and omissions, which a cursory reading of their press statement would reveal.

CADRES contended that the two leaders are at present equally preferred.

This is obvious in the context of a poll with a +/- 5% margin of error, where both Dr. Anthony and Mr. Chastenet are separated by 3% points.

The SLP is, either, not familiar with the concept of the “margin of error” or, perhaps, believes that the St Lucian public is not sophisticated enough to appreciate this concept.

There is, however, no such technical appreciation necessary to understand our assertion that Mr. Chastanet has doubled his support among “Uncertain Voters” since he held 7% among this group in 2015 and now holds 13%, while Dr. Anthony has slipped from 18% to 7%.

The final and perhaps most unfortunate aspect of the SLP’s release was the imputation that the track record of CADRES as an organisation and Peter Wickham as its lead pollster’s track was anything other than successful.

We believe that the St Lucian public is very familiar with our record and would immediately appreciate the extent to which the SLP is not accurately reflecting the historical record of both CADRES and Mr. Wickham.

CADRES challenges the SLP to deny that it correctly predicted the correct outcome of the elections held over the last three years in St Vincent and the Grenadines, Trinidad and Tobago, Grenada and Antigua.

Notwithstanding all of the above, CADRES challenges the SLP to identify the Caribbean polling organisation with a track-record that is superior to ours since 1990 and moreover we ask it to state why it has never challenged a CADRES prediction or methodology in St Lucia previously, although we have been involved in the 2001, 2006 and 2011 elections here.

Finally, CADRES notes the SLP’s claim that they “recently conducted two of its own polls with two different reputable pollsters”.

CADRES challenges the SLP to identify these persons and to make their findings publicly available for scrutiny in the same way that CADRES has done.

Once the SLP’s pollsters are willing to release their findings, CADRES stands ready to engage these pollsters publicly and compare our respective findings and methodologies in a way that will help to enlighten the St Lucian public on the likely outcome of the election.

This will allow the public to independently assess the integrity of the respective pollsters, namely the CADRES and the SLP’s anonymous pollsters.

Should the SLP be unable or unwilling to identify its “reputable” pollsters, then the St Lucian public would be left with no other alternative than to conclude that these persons either do not exist or that their data is a fiction.

This will create a credibility problem for the SLP with the public at a time when credibility is a serious electoral consideration for voters

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  1. Guava Jelly
    May 31, 2016 at 8:36 pm Reply

    Why did’nt CADRES deal with the issue of how the poll was financed.


  2. lala
    May 31, 2016 at 10:53 pm Reply

    hahaha…yo pere

  3. Philozoff
    May 31, 2016 at 10:54 pm Reply

    It’s a fair question. Because if as is rumored that the pollster wears two hats, that of pollster and consultant then he will be loath to present a poll to the person or group who contracted his service that predicts a wipe out or humiliating defeat. Thus making the poll a sham and reducing the credibility of the pollster to lowest common denominator.

  4. whats going on
    June 1, 2016 at 12:23 am Reply

    All I heard on the news is Jadia talking nonsense. Frankly, for the first time I heard her stuttering, trying to find words to explain what she obviously did not understand. Jadia my dear this is a special branch of scientific study not the limited one we all did at Tertiary school.
    One should not case aspersion upon what one does not understand for it makes one look stupid in the eyes of the public when the scientific challenge or evidence is presented.
    I have always looked forward to the CADRES polls in many of our Caribbean elections and they have consistently proven to be respectfully accurate.

    1. Anonymous
      June 1, 2016 at 1:17 pm Reply

      Amen u just couldn’t have said it better.jadia was talking crap .

  5. Anonymous
    June 1, 2016 at 7:31 am Reply

    Peter yoi now and i know to well if your employer the UWP was going to win you would have said so….

    Peter the only reason you will not tell St.Lucia UWP will win is because you have delivered the sad news to Chastanet. Plus you want to get your name in so call good standing….

    There is no UWP thst see a path to victory ……. The more each UWP try to find a clear start of 6 seats ….they only coming up with just 1 (King..North Castries)…..

    SLP has a clear 6 in Dalson,Alava,Kenny,Alva,Hiliaire,Edwards…..

    1. lala
      June 1, 2016 at 8:20 am Reply

      TRUST me that’s all slp will probably get this election 6 seats, slp knows that soufriere is always unpredictable.
      By you naming 6 seats it clearly acknowledges that slp has accepted the fact that Lorne, Emma, Moses, Pip and Alvie will lose their seats.

    2. Anonymous
      June 1, 2016 at 6:44 pm Reply

      Point of correction, SLP is starting June 6 elections with 9 clear seats namely, Anse/ Canneries, Soufriere, Laborie, Vx. Fort South and North, Dennery North, Castries East, Castries South and Central Castries. Choiseul, Castries South East, Gros Is let and Barbuoneau are up for grabs. We in St. Lucia understand the scientific nature of the CADRES POlls. In addition, we understand the pollster will dance to the tune of its fanacie, in this case it is the UWP.

      1. Lynn
        June 2, 2016 at 2:50 pm Reply

        I find this very laughable. Predictions, predictions and more predictions.

  6. whats going on
    June 1, 2016 at 7:35 am Reply

    “Recently (the SLP) conducted two of its own polls with two different reputable pollsters and both of these polls indicate that the Labour Party is firmly in sight of an election victory on 6th June, 2016.”
    In order for us to critic or support that claim from the SLP, we would need to know
    1. the actual result of the polls
    2. the name of these two ‘reputable pollsters.’
    3. the methodologies used to conduct the polls
    4. the relation of the Pollsters to the party or their funding source. This as you correctly stated MAY add statistical BIAS to the result.
    Finally, I will ask all St. Lucian to compare this response of CADRES to the critic of the SLP (see link above) and judge for yourself which is scientific and who is qualified to know what they are doing or saying.
    Let the HEAVYWEIGHT Pollsters debate their findings. I will be waiting with bated breath for that debate.

  7. a
    June 1, 2016 at 8:02 am Reply

    “The SLP is, either, not familiar with the concept of the “margin of error” or, perhaps, believes that the St Lucian public is not sophisticated enough to appreciate this concept.” It is clear that the SLP believes the latter!

  8. Anonymous
    June 1, 2016 at 8:16 am Reply

    You all UWP can write all the crap you all want…….. To form government you need 9…

    SLP is starting with a clear 6 seats……

  9. Anonymous
    June 1, 2016 at 8:17 am Reply

    Micoud South is going SLP….. 99%

  10. Anonymous
    June 1, 2016 at 9:23 am Reply

    Peter is behaving like Tom Chou, if that is what his results show..simply state you stand by it. Its none of your business what the SLP poll shows. Elections are won on D Day!!

  11. Mohammed Sacirby
    June 3, 2016 at 6:33 am Reply

    Now that the SLP has released its poll and the name its pollster (Don Anderson) I hope CADRES will not have the audacity to not release name of the party that financed its poll.

  12. marylyn
    June 4, 2016 at 7:44 pm Reply

    why are you all running away from the real truth that slp will lose the elections. the uwp is in opposition why are you so concerned about who financed the poll. pure bs on slp

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