A tropical wave in the central tropical Atlantic has changed little in organization Monday. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development over the next couple of days, as the disturbance moves toward the Lesser Antilles.
However, by this weekend, the tropical wave will move into a more hostile environment, featuring higher vertical wind shear and drier air.
As of Tuesday morning, the National Hurricane Center currently gives this system a 70% chance of development over the next five days. If the system becomes a tropical storm, the next name on the list is Josephine.