Thursday, October 17, 2019

National Hurricane Center 8AM Weather Update

National Hurricane Center 8:00 a.m. update: Reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the strong tropical wave located near Barbados is producing winds of 40 to 45 mph. Regardless of whether or not the system becomes a tropical storm before it moves through the Lesser Antilles, tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rains will spread across Guadeloupe, Dominica, Martinique, and St. Lucia today.

Satellite and surface observations suggest that the circulation associated with the system has become better defined, and the reconnaissance aircraft is beginning its mission to determine if a tropical storm has formed. The system is moving westward to west-northwestward at around 15 mph, and is expected to pass over the Lesser Antilles later today, and move over the southeastern Caribbean Sea tonight and Thursday.

SLUMET 6:00 a.m. update: A strong tropical wave with an associated broad area of low pressure is currently centered about 200 miles or 322 kilometers east of Saint Lucia. Conditions remain favorable for this system to develop and a tropical depression or a tropical storm is likely to form later today.

The leading edge of the system is already causing showers, thunderstorms and strong gusts over some areas of the Lesser Antilles. This activity is expected to continue for the remainder of today.
Residents and interests in Saint Lucia and the Lesser Antilles are asked to closely monitor the progress of this disturbance. A reconnaissance aircraft will be investigating the system this morning.

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