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New Election Model Predicts Massive Loss For Trump

SourceCNN

CNN Business:- The economy has gone from President Donald Trump’s greatest political asset to perhaps his biggest weakness.

Unemployment is spiking at an unprecedented rate. Consumer spending is vanishing. And GDP is collapsing.

History shows that dreadful economic trends like these spell doom for sitting presidents seeking reelection.

The coronavirus recession will cause Trump to suffer a “historic defeat” in November, a national election model released Wednesday by Oxford Economics predicted.

The model, which uses unemployment, disposable income and inflation to forecast election results, predicts that Trump will lose in a landslide, capturing just 35% of the popular vote.

That’s a sharp reversal from the model’s pre-crisis prediction that Trump would win about 55% of the vote. And it would be the worst performance for an incumbent in a century.

“It would take nothing short of an economic miracle for pocketbooks to favor Trump,” Oxford Economics wrote in the report, adding that the economy will be a “nearly insurmountable obstacle for Trump come November.”

The model has correctly predicted the popular vote in every election since 1948 other than 1968 and 1976 (although two candidates lost the popular vote but won the presidency in that span, including George W. Bush in 2000 and Donald Trump in 2016).

Ohio, Missouri could flip to Democrats
The national election model assumes that the economy is still in bad shape this fall, with unemployment above 13%, real per capita incomes down nearly 6% from a year ago and brief period of falling prices, or deflation.

“The economy would still be in a worse state than at the depth of the Great Depression,” the Oxford Economics report said.

A separate state-based election model run by Oxford Economics that incorporates local economic trends and gasoline prices predicts Trump will badly lose the electoral college by a margin of 328 to 210.

That model forecasts that seven battleground states will flip to Democrats: Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Missouri and North Carolina.

“We would expect these states to experience significant economic contractions and traumatic job losses that would likely swing pocketbook vote,” the report said.

Oxford Economics developed the state-based model last year. It would have correctly predicted Trump’s upset electoral college victory as well as seven of the nine prior elections since 1980.

(Read more at:  https://edition.cnn.com/2020/05/20/business/economy-election-trump-biden-jobs/index.html)

5 COMMENTS

  1. He is his own worse enemy; every tine he opens his mouth, the words come out before he thinks of what
    to say. But again, watch it,these are not normal times we’re living in. Money talks – this is america, you know.

  2. He will Do and say anything .I hope He Lost Miserably in December .He will have all the free time to Supervise his Casinos and other Businesses

  3. Trump is an institution,there are thousands benefiting from his position and comercial power,they will do what it takes to keep him there.They have corrupted everything,its all a mafia organization,bankers judges,lawyers,big bussines.Then you have a dumb red neck population,and the rest of American idiots ,that still believe he is like a god.America is an enbarrasing disaster.But fish die by the mouth,cant stop that its nature

  4. I guess I can say it here… Americans have got to be the dumbest set of people ever… we think because they have resources that they have any ounce of wisdom… but they really don’t. They have made themselves the laughing stock of the world by electing this guy in the first place… And look at how costly it has been. Over 90,000 deaths from Covid due to mixed messages and propaganda and blame games. These people really need to wise up… I actually feel sorry for them.

  5. I don’t wanna hear that, similar was said during 2016 and looked what happened. America for the good of the entire world please get this guy out of office

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