June 1 marks the start of the hurricane season for the North Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico. Major hurricane season forecasting agencies such as Colorado State University, the NOAA Climate Prediction Center, Tropical Storm Risk and The Weather Channel, have all predicted an above normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season.
If their predictions are correct, this season will be the seventh consecutive above average hurricane season.
The Colorado State University team in their latest forecast released on April 7, predicts the formation of 19 named storms, of which nine will develop into hurricanes, with four attaining major hurricane status.
The Tropical Storm Risk team in April, predicts a season with above normal activity, but at levels lower than 2020 and 2021, with the formation of 18 named storms, of which eight will develop into hurricanes with four attaining major hurricane status.
The NOAA Climate Prediction Centre scientists, in a forecast released on May 21, predict a 65 percent possibility of above-normal cyclone activity this year. They have forecasted the formation of 14 to 21 named storms of which six to 10 could become hurricanes including three to six major hurricanes.
The Saint Lucia Met. Services advises all residents and interests in the region to exercise due diligence in planning and preparing for the hurricane season.
All are encouraged to consistently follow regional weather developments and to pay particular attention to local weather reports, advisories and bulletins issued by the Saint Lucia Meteorological Services.
The National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO) will also be issuing important instructions and information which residents are strongly advised to follow.
Pre-season rainfall over Saint Lucia this year has generally been below normal, and this trend is likely to continue into July.
Heavy rainfall episodes are an expected feature of our rainy season, and in general, the occurrence of flooding and landslides will remain a major concern this year.
Bush fires during this dry season have destroyed some of the protective canopy on slopes in certain areas, thereby increasing the risk of landslides.
The Saint Lucia Meteorological Services will, as usual, be utilizing all available communication channels and facilities, including local news and social media, to transmit timely information to Saint Lucian residents and interests.
The hurricane season ends on November 30.
Source: Saint Lucia Meteorological Services