By: Fernella Wedderburn
Regional pollster Peter Wickham does not believe Saint Lucia’s Prime Minister, Philip J Pierre will announce the election date anytime soon, contrary to popular belief.
However, Wickham, who is the principal director of the Caribbean political research company, Caribbean Development Research Services (CADRES), still feels that Pierre will be the man to beat whenever the general election, which is constitutionally due by 2026, is held.
While no date has yet been disclosed, the political climate on the island according to Wickham is “definitely heating up” with heightened campaign activity from the two major parties, the ruling Saint Lucia Labour Party (SLP) led by Pierre and the Opposition United Workers Party (UWP) with Allen Chastanet at the helm.
He is of the opinion, though, that Pierre will not call an election unless he feels as though he has an unassailable advantage.
“If it is called early, it’s obviously because there’s an intention to capture momentum. If it is called early, it will mean that Prime Minister Pierre believes that he has an advantage now, that he is in an advantageous position and that he wants to hold on to that advantage,” Wickham told the St. Lucia Times.
“It means that he thinks that his agenda, in terms of his manifesto promises, have been completed or are close enough to completion that he thinks that he can press a button and he can go forward.”
Interestingly, Wickham said it was possible that the Prime Minister may be waiting for the reconstructed St Jude’s Hospital to be fully completed before announcing a date.
“I believe that the announcement will probably come after the hospital is opened, St Jude’s. I think that that would make sense to me.
“…This has been a very, very different administration and I think if the expectations that people had would be that the Prime Minister [would have been] different, he’s been different. So that part, I think, has been satisfied, but that’s why I think that the initiatives at the hospital are absolutely important, because we’ve had a situation where now it has been promised by a previous Labour Party administration, promised by the UWP administration, and hopefully if it is delivered by this Labour Party administration, that’ll be a major coup on their part. So, I think that’s critical,” Wickham said.
The respected pollster said while he could not give an objective assessment as to whether the ruling party had delivered on its last manifesto, it appeared as though Saint Lucians were satisfied with the work of Pierre’s government.
“I get the impression that people think so. People think that there’s been a relative level of stability.
“I think the last election was really about the Chastanet effect and to some extent mismanagement. People thought that there was corruption and there was a lack of transparency in a number of projects and so on,” Wickham pointed out.
He said with residents generally satisfied, Pierre would be “the man to beat” whenever an election is called, despite the recent pattern of voters not giving governments successive terms.
Wickham said it was now left to be seen whether Pierre and the SLP could bring an end to that trend.
“Can they break that cycle and win two terms, or alternatively, whether Chastanet will get the same chance that Kenny Anthony got in terms of being able to get back the government.
“As to what will happen, you know, I’m not sure, but I would say that it is Prime Minister Pierre’s election to lose,” Wickham said.
“That’s the way I’m seeing it now, which is interesting, because I think I said the same thing in terms of Chastanet in the last administration.”
Wickham questioned whether Chastanet’s new-look UWP had gained enough ground from the last election.
“…It clearly has been a stagnation within the UWP. The faces of the past UWP, a lot of them are gone.
“Certainly Gale Rigobert, she was a former Leader of the Opposition, she is not running again and there’s some other notable faces that are not there,” Wickham pointed out.
“The question is whether Chastanet with his new team can gain enough enthusiasm to make up from where he left off, and I’m not absolutely sure that he can.”
Wickham, however, pointed to the fact that several elections had been lost because the ruling parties waited too long and eventually lost their advantages. He said Pierre would have to be mindful of that.
“My view is that in the past, Labour Party governments have, and certainly UWP governments have waited longer than they should and have lost electoral advantages.
“Kenny Anthony lost an election for that reason and certainly the last election, had Chastanet called it during COVID, like everyone else, he probably would have fared far better, so it’s possible that the Prime Minister currently wants to ensure that he is not also falling victim to having to wait too long,” Wickham said.
