While 2025 isn’t expected to break extreme heat records like 2024, the Caribbean faces a potentially intense and erratic wet/hurricane season – with one unpredictable factor looming large: Saharan dust.
That was the key takeaway from the Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF) in Grenada on Thursday, where climatologists warned that massive dust plumes from the Sahara could stifle storm development, or, if absent, fuel a very active season.
“The headline is a potentially intense but erratic season ahead,” said Cédric Van Meerbeeck, a climatologist at the Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH). However, he acknowledged that a lot depends on how much dust there is.
Historically, the Atlantic sees about 14 named storms per year, with seven becoming hurricanes and three reaching major hurricane status (Category 3 or higher).
This year, forecasters predict a similar baseline, but with wild swings possible due to Saharan dust interference.
“How much power is going to be generated by those storms? Well, again, the same thing, it’s about average or more than that depending on how much dust we get and other factors,” Meerbeeck said.
Saharan dust, carried across the Atlantic by dry air layers, can act as a natural storm suppressant. When concentrated at high altitudes, it absorbs sunlight, warming the upper atmosphere and stifling the rising moist air that fuels hurricanes.
So, severe dust may just stifle the effects and intensity of some storms. Less dust could mean a progressive uptick in the season.
Tricia Miller of CIMH noted that there were no actual predictions of how often intrusions of Saharan Air Layers would interfere with storm activity this year.
Despite the dust wild card, CIMH forecasts “19 storms from a range of 13 to 25”, with “high confidence” in at least an average or above-average season. The warm Atlantic Ocean provides ample fuel, and the latter half of the season is expected to be particularly active.
“One storm is enough to be a disastrous season,” Meerbeeck cautioned, urging residents to monitor updates from national disaster offices and the Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency (CDEMA).
The region is also bracing for intense heat, though Miller said it would not be as severe as in 2023 and 2024, and flash flooding risks as the wet season intensifies.
The Atlantic/Caribbean hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.
2025 storm names
Andrea, Barry, Chantal, Dexter, Erin, Fernand, Gabrielle, Humberto, Imelda, Jerry, Karen, Lorenzo, Melissa, Nestor, Olga, Pablo, Rebekah, Sebastien, Tanya, Van, Wendy
