The 2026-2027 El Niño could affect jobs and livelihoods across the Caribbean, with agriculture, fisheries and tourism identified among the sectors most exposed to the climate phenomenon, according to a new report by the International Labour Organisation (ILO).
The ILO says the Caribbean is among the regions expected to experience drought, water shortages and heatwaves during the 2026-2027 El Niño, with agriculture – including maize, beans, wheat, coffee and sugarcane – fisheries and tourism as some of the sectors facing the greatest risk.
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern marked by unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. It can disrupt global weather patterns, bringing drought, heatwaves or excessive rainfall to different regions.
In a policy brief examining the likely labour impacts of El Niño across Latin America and the Caribbean, the ILO said the conditions caused by the 2026-2027 could reduce employment, lower incomes and worsen working conditions, particularly for informal workers, rural communities and people who work outdoors.
The report also warns that El Niño could worsen food insecurity, drive up food and energy prices, reduce productivity and increase the risk of child labour in vulnerable households.
It also warns of loss of rural incomes, increased labour migration, greater informality in the labour market and severe heat stress among outdoor workers, all of which could have significant consequences for workers and labour markets.
“The 2026-2027 El Niño poses a major challenge for employment and decent work in Latin America and the Caribbean. The scale of its impacts will depend on countries’ ability to anticipate them through strong labour market institutions, social protection systems and social dialogue that protect those who are most vulnerable,” said Fabio Bertranou, ILO Deputy Regional Director for Latin America and the Caribbean.
The ILO also cautions that the effects of El Niño could extend beyond the workplace, contributing to food insecurity, higher food and energy prices, reduced productivity and an increased risk of child labour as vulnerable households struggle to cope.
According to the report, the Caribbean’s high levels of informal employment leave many workers particularly vulnerable because they often lack access to social protection and other support mechanisms that help people recover from climate-related shocks.
The ILO says the impacts are not inevitable, stressing that governments can reduce the risks by strengthening social protection, investing in climate-resilient infrastructure, improving occupational safety and health, expanding early warning systems and promoting social dialogue.
The organisation urged policymakers to treat El Niño not only as a weather event but as a threat with far-reaching consequences for economies, labour markets and employment, requiring coordinated action to protect workers and livelihoods across the region.
