Tourism Minister Dr Ernest Hilaire has defended Saint Lucia’s visitor expenditure data following scrutiny from a recent International Monetary Fund (IMF) report that raised concerns about the methodology used in calculating tourism spending.
The IMF’s External Sector Statistics Mission, conducted through the Caribbean Regional Technical Assistance Centre (CARTAC), questioned the accuracy of data collected by the Saint Lucia Tourism Authority (SLTB) through its Visitor Expenditure Survey (VES). Since the COVID-19 pandemic, the VES has been administered online via email or QR codes –methods the IMF says have yielded a limited sample size.
Citing comparisons between Saint Lucia’s figures and data from the US Survey of International Air Travelers (SIAT), the report stated: “The exercise suggests that the total expenditure of US visitors in Saint Lucia in the VES might be overestimated by 24.8 per cent in 2023, and the overall total expenditure overestimated by 14.0 per cent.” The report recommended a return to larger, more representative sampling to improve the reliability of average daily expenditure and length-of-stay estimates.
At Monday’s pre-Cabinet press briefing, Hilaire acknowledged the small sample sizes but attributed the issue to post-pandemic privacy protocols associated with online surveys.
“You have to ask [for] permission to send promotional material and information to [visitors],” he said, noting that only individuals who opt in can receive the questionnaire, and from that group, only a fraction responds.
He added that steps were already underway to strengthen the methodology.
The minister saysthat since June last year, stakeholders met and agreed to reintroduce face-to-face surveys to improve the sample size.
‘Bogus’ claims rejected
Hilaire also pushed back against accusations that the government had manipulated the data.
Over the weekend, former tourism minister and opposition United Workers Party member Dominic Fedee labelled the tourism figures “bogus,” arguing that inflated visitor spending data would distort GDP and national budget estimates.
“… If tourism, [which] is 65 per cent of the country’s GDP, is inflated by 25 per cent, the whole budget is inflated because the biggest financial contribution is coming from the tourism industry,” Fedee charged during the UWP’s Sunday Live broadcast.
Hilaire pointed out that differences in expenditure data also existed before the pandemic, during which time UWP served in office.
The IMF report noted that in 2019, when in-person surveys were being conducted, the SLTB recorded an average US visitor spend of US$2 354, while SIAT’s figure stood at US$1 455. The mission recommended a review of the 2019 face-to-face survey methodology, particularly the representativeness of its sample and potential reasons for the divergence.
“Personally, I believe there will always be a disparity between the American assessment of how much each US traveller spends and our own,” Hilaire said, claiming that he’d also had reason to preview UK expenditure figures and differences reflected there too, though with the UK estimating higher expenditure.
Despite the IMF’s critique, Hilaire maintained confidence in Saint Lucia’s data.
“We are working to make sure the methodology is as tight as possible,” he said. “We stand by the figures because we believe that even if the sample might be slightly smaller than what they believe is acceptable, it is still a very good statement of visitor expenditure in the country.”
