Saint Lucia’s recent dip in overall unemployment—down to 10.8 per cent in 2024, the lowest it’s been in more than two decades—has become a political badge of honour for the ruling Saint Lucia Labour Party (SLP).
At the party’s 2024 Delegates Conference, Prime Minister Philip J Pierre stood behind the figure as a marker of progress, citing gains in GDP as part of fiscal plans implemented by his administration and forecasting an even more favourable outlook. He pointed to labour force data for the first quarter of 2024, putting the jobless rate at 11 per cent, the lowest since 1991. “We are still not satisfied. We aim at reducing unemployment to single digits by the end of our first term,” Pierre said then.
In the fourth quarter of 2024, the unemployment rate reached 8.8 per cent, the lowest recorded for a single quarter.
But if political capital is being built on those numbers, it was only a matter of time before the opposition struck back. And they have – with accusations of a statistical sleight of hand.
During a recent United Workers Party (UWP) Sunday Live, the party claimed that thousands of Saint Lucians had stopped looking for work altogether, vanishing from the official count of the unemployed.
“The unemployment rate came down only because 4 000 Saint Lucians are no longer looking for work,” said Anse la Raye UWP candidate Dominic Fedee. “It has nothing to do with the economic management of the Labour Party.”
So who’s right? And how exactly is unemployment calculated in Saint Lucia?
Two truths: A shrinking labour force and modest economic growth
According to preliminary estimates from the Central Statistical Office (CSO), both sides have a point. The 2024 unemployment rate of 10.8 per cent is technically accurate. But it reflects not just job creation, but also a shrinking labour force.
Data shows that the labour force participation rate – defined as the share of the working-age population that is either employed or actively looking for work – fell to 69.3 per cent in 2024, down from 71.6 per cent in 2023. “This lower participation rate was indicative of a larger number of persons opting out of participating in the labour market,” a CSO report states.
In numbers: the average number of employed individuals in 2024 was 97 354. Even though this was a slight decrease from the previous year, the unemployment rate fell because the labour force itself shrank more significantly. Employment figures rose to 89.2 per cent, up from 85.9 per cent in 2023. Youth unemployment also showed improvement, dropping from 25 per cent in 2023 to an average of 17.8 per cent in 2024.
Still, economic activity was not stagnant. The CSO and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) both noted positive developments. The IMF’s 2024 Article IV consultation described Saint Lucia’s economy as “performing relatively well”. GDP growth, which slowed to 2.2 per cent in 2023 due to fewer US visitors, rebounded to an estimated 3.7 per cent in 2024, driven by increased tourism and construction.
The fiscal position of the government improved, buoyed by higher revenue intake. Inflation, which peaked at 6.4 per cent in 2022, had dropped to 0.8 per cent by mid-2024. Plans for minimum wage enforcement, expanded pension schemes, and an unemployment insurance system were also rolled out.
Yet, as the IMF cautioned, these are not permanent gains. Growth is expected to slow to a modest 1.5 per cent over the medium term, they said, and inflation is projected to gradually rise to around 2 per cent.
Is the data trustworthy?
The numbers are there, but public confidence often isn’t. Many citizens, and some politicians, remain sceptical of the unemployment statistics themselves.
Sean Mathurin, the CSO’s director, acknowledges the scrutiny, but maintains that the methodology is sound.
“The recent unemployment statistics that we put out; when we did the initial round of computation and the results were communicated to me, I initially informed the staff, ‘Listen, we need to ensure [they’re accurate]… because if we put out those statistics, you know what will happen in terms of persons’ interpretation’,” Mathurin said in an interview with St Lucia Times earlier this month.
According to him, the CSO conducted multiple rounds of verification to rule out human error. The data was also sent to the International Labour Organisation (ILO) for independent analysis. “They came up with the same results,” Mathurin said. “We also used administrative data from the NIC and other sources to see whether the trend and magnitude were consistent. And that was the case.”
The CSO uses what’s called a stratified random sampling method to gather data. “It’s not something that we just… you know, say, ‘We’ll do Jack tomorrow, we’ll do John’,” Mathurin said. “We divide the population into different subgroups – districts, communities, age, sex – and then take a random sample from each stratum. It’s scientifically done.”
When asked whether the method had changed, Mathurin was unequivocal: “It’s always been done like that. Because that’s what the ILO recommends. It’s not what we recommend; we do what the ILO recommends.”
He encourages those with doubts to approach the CSO directly. “We are very responsible. We’re quite aware of the implications of these statistics in terms of policies, in terms of the government’s ability to access funding, and even the country’s credit rating. We take that very seriously,” he said, referencing general statistical practices and how the CSO works alongside regional and international agencies to produce data and fortify methodologies.
Perception vs reality
So, where does that leave the public and the politics?
On paper, Saint Lucia has made gains: unemployment is down, GDP is up, and inflation is tame. But the deeper truth is more complicated. Fewer people are looking for work, even as some sectors expand. And while the data may be technically sound, its interpretation, like most things in politics, remains open for debate.
